| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | USC | 13-73 | 1326.8 | -152.7 | 1174.1 | 4.3% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Marshall | 21-20 | 1174.1 | +115.3 | 1289.4 | 8.5% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | SMU | 10-28 | 1289.4 | +22.2 | 1311.6 | 6.1% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | UT Martin | 42-10 | 1311.6 | +53.1 | 1364.7 | 78.3% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Western Kentucky | 22-27 | 1364.7 | -8.0 | 1356.7 | 32.0% |
| 8 | Oct 8 2025 | W | Middle Tennessee | 22-20 | 1358.3 | +9.2 | 1367.5 | 65.3% |
| 10 | Oct 22 2025 | W | New Mexico State | 24-17 | 1361.7 | +18.3 | 1380.0 | 55.8% |
| 11 | Oct 29 2025 | W | Florida International | 28-21 | 1380.0 | -3.6 | 1376.4 | 61.1% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Liberty | 21-17 | 1376.4 | +30.4 | 1406.8 | 36.4% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | UTEP | 38-24 | 1406.8 | +17.1 | 1423.9 | 59.3% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Kennesaw State | 34-41 | 1423.9 | -0.6 | 1423.3 | 47.8% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Louisiana Tech | 30-42 | 1423.3 | -25.4 | 1397.9 | 43.6% |
| 18 | Dec 18 2025 | L | Arkansas State | 28-34 | 1397.1 | -12.2 | 1384.9 | 44.4% |