| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | L | Texas A&M | 0-50 | 1399.3 | -44.9 | 1354.3 | 3.4% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Lindenwood | 48-14 | 1354.3 | +42.6 | 1396.9 | 77.7% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | L | Marshall | 24-30 | 1396.9 | -7.7 | 1389.2 | 38.2% |
| 4 | Sep 27 2026 | L | SMU | 24-34 | 1389.2 | +27.2 | 1416.4 | 4.6% |
| 6 | Oct 8 2026 | L | Western Kentucky | 13-34 | 1417.0 | -29.8 | 1387.2 | 59.2% |
| 7 | Oct 14 2026 | W | Kennesaw State | 24-21 | 1387.2 | +3.8 | 1391.0 | 42.4% |